Where the Money Sits: Exter’s Pyramid of Liquidity
The world’s and Australia’s financial claims, layer by layer, from derivatives at the top to gold at the base. Current figures, sourced and dated, with no policy stated.
1. The numbers
Global (US dollars)
- OTC derivatives, notional outstanding: $844.6 trillion, end-2025. Gross market value: $22.8 trillion.[1]
- Real estate (residential, commercial, agricultural land): $393.3 trillion, start of 2025.[2]
- Listed equities: $156.7 trillion, September 2026.[3]
- Non-financial corporate debt $100.6 trillion and household debt $64.6 trillion: $165.2 trillion combined, end-2025.[4]
- Government debt: $106.7 trillion, end-2025.[4] Total global debt: about $365.5 trillion, mid-2026.[5]
- US Treasury bills: $7.118 trillion, 30 September 2026.[6]
- Physical currency in circulation worldwide: about $8.3 trillion, 2025 estimate.[7]
- Gold above ground: 219,891 tonnes, end-2025.[8] At $4,043 per ounce (27 October 2026): $28.6 trillion.[9]
- Bitcoin: $1.626 trillion at $80,899 (15 October 2026), 60.05% of the crypto market. All crypto: about $2.7 trillion.[10]
Australia (Australian dollars)
- OTC derivatives, notional outstanding: $42.3 trillion, June 2017, of which interest rate derivatives $34.7 trillion. No later total published.[11]
- Residential dwellings: $12.77 trillion, 31 March 2026.[12]
- ASX market capitalisation: $3.24 trillion, end-September 2026.[13]
- Housing credit: $2.62 trillion, June 2026.[14] Total private credit: about $4.23 trillion (derived, section 5).
- Commonwealth Government Securities: $988.4 billion, of which Treasury Notes $53.0 billion, 30 January 2026.[15] State government bonds: $550 billion, 2023.[16]
- Banknotes on issue: $107.6 billion, 18 February 2026.[17]
- Reserve Bank gold: 79.87 tonnes, unchanged since 1997; about $15.0 billion.[18]
- Household net worth: $19.39 trillion, June quarter 2026. Household debt: about $3.41 trillion (derived).[19]
- Household debt-to-income: 177.7%, March quarter 2026.[20]
- Australian OTC interest rate derivatives turnover: US$252 billion a day, April 2025, up 123% on 2022.[21]
2. Exter’s pyramid
John Exter was the first governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon and later a vice-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He ranked financial assets by two properties: how quickly they convert to money without loss of value, and how much they depend on another party paying. The result is an inverted pyramid.
From the top: derivatives, real estate, listed equities, corporate and household debt, government debt, short-term government bills, cash, and gold. Each layer above gold is a claim on a layer below it or on someone’s future income. Gold is the one layer that is not another party’s liability. Exter’s original diagram predates the modern derivatives market; later versions add derivatives as the top layer.
The model describes a direction of movement. In a credit contraction, lenders call in or decline to roll over loans, asset prices fall, and holders sell assets in the upper layers to obtain assets in the lower layers. The lower layers are smaller than the upper layers, so the same flow of money moves their prices further.
Every debt is also an asset of the lender. A mortgage is a liability of the household and an asset of the bank, and the house it is secured on is counted separately as real estate. One house therefore appears in two layers. For this reason the layers are not added together.
3. The global pyramid
Bands show order, not size. Values in US dollars.
| Layer | Value (US$) | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OTC derivatives, notional | $844.6T | Dec 2025 | BIS, via ISDA[1] |
| Real estate | $393.3T | Jan 2025 | Savills[2] |
| Listed equities | $156.7T | Sep 2026 | Ocorian[3] |
| Corporate + household debt | $165.2T | Dec 2025 | IIF[4] |
| Government debt | $106.7T | Dec 2025 | IIF[4] |
| US Treasury bills | $7.1T | Sep 2026 | US Treasury[6] |
| Physical cash | ~$8.3T | 2025 | Secondary estimate[7] |
| Gold | $28.6T | Oct 2026 | World Gold Council; spot price[8][9] |
| Crypto (Bitcoin $1.6T) | ~$2.7T | Oct 2026 | Forbes Advisor[10] |
On current values the layers do not grow steadily upward. Gold ($28.6 trillion) is larger than the two layers above it, physical cash and US Treasury bills. Listed equities ($156.7 trillion) are smaller than corporate and household debt ($165.2 trillion). Exter ordered the layers by liquidity and credit risk, not by size. Gold is 3.4% of the derivatives layer by notional value.
The Treasury bill layer covers the United States only; no global total for short-term government bills was found. Government debt includes those bills. Financial-sector debt (about $76 trillion, the remainder of the IIF total) is not shown in any layer.
4. Gold and crypto
At the base, gold is $28.6 trillion (91.4%), Bitcoin $1.6 trillion (5.2%) and other crypto about $1.1 trillion (3.5%). The crypto total is calculated from Bitcoin’s 60.05% share of the crypto market; it is not a published figure. The crypto values are from 15 October 2026 and the gold value from 27 October 2026.
Crypto is placed in this layer because, like gold, Bitcoin has no issuer and a fixed supply: about 20.1 million of a final 21 million coins have been mined.[22] The institutions that set gold’s position treat the two differently:
- Central banks: 45% of respondents to the World Gold Council’s 2026 survey plan to increase gold reserves within 12 months. The same survey found little central bank support for Bitcoin as a reserve asset.[23]
- Bank capital rules: the Basel Committee standard gives gold bullion a 0% risk weight and places unbacked crypto in its highest-risk group, at a 1,250% risk weight.
- Forecasts: Deutsche Bank Research forecasts that Bitcoin will be held in many central banks’ reserves by 2030.[24]
- Price: Bitcoin traded about 35% below its record of $126,198 (6 October 2025) on 20 October 2026.[22]
- Correlation with gold: published figures for 2026 range from −0.88 to +0.86, over different time windows. The sign of the relationship changed during the year.
5. Australia’s pyramid
Bands show order, not size. Values in Australian dollars. Red values are older or derived.
| Layer | Value (A$) | Date | Source and basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| OTC derivatives, notional | $47.2T | 2017 | AFMA 2017; the DDRS trade repository reported $42.3T at June 2017[11] |
| Residential dwellings | $12.77T | Mar 2026 | ABS Total Value of Dwellings; 11.5 million dwellings. Commercial property not included; no current total found[12] |
| Listed equities (ASX) | $3.24T | Sep 2026 | ASX market statistics[13] |
| Household + business debt | ~$4.23T | 2026 | Housing $2.62T (RBA, June 2026) divided by housing’s 62% share of credit; business 34% (~$1.44T), personal 4% (~$0.17T). Bank credit only[14] |
| Government debt | ~$1.54T | Mixed | Commonwealth $988.4bn (AOFM, Jan 2026) plus state bonds $550bn (RBA, 2023)[15][16] |
| Treasury Notes | $53.0bn | Jan 2026 | AOFM; included in government debt[15] |
| Banknotes on issue | $107.6bn | Feb 2026 | RBA balance sheet[17] |
| RBA gold | ~$15.0bn | Oct 2026 | 79.87 t × 32,150.75 oz/t × US$4,043/oz ÷ US$0.694 per A$[18] |
| Crypto held by Australians | $21.6bn | Feb 2022 | Roy Morgan; latest total found[25] |
Assumptions in the derived rows: the 62/34/4 credit shares are rounded; the exchange rate of US$0.694 per A$ is approximate for late October 2026 and was not confirmed against an official rate. In the base layer, crypto ($21.6 billion, 2022) appears larger than RBA gold ($15.0 billion, 2026); the two figures are four years apart. For scale, projected 2025 Australian gold mine output of about 390 tonnes is worth about $73 billion a year at the same price and exchange rate.[26]
6. Australian households: assets against debt
A balance sheet records what is owned (assets) against what is owed (liabilities). The difference is net worth: assets equal liabilities plus net worth.
dwellings
~$13.0T
$19.39T
Column heights to scale. June quarter 2026. Values marked ~ are derived (see table).
| Item, June quarter 2026 | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Net worth | $19.39T | ABS: $19,388.9 billion, up $201.1 billion (1.0%)[19] |
| Debt | ~$3.41T | Derived: borrowing rose 2.2% ($73.4 billion) in the quarter[19] |
| Total assets | ~$22.8T | Derived: net worth plus debt |
| Land and dwellings | ~$13.0T | Derived: 57% of household assets. Fell 0.2% in the quarter, the first fall since September quarter 2022[19][27] |
| Superannuation | ~$4.68T | Derived: rose 5.2% ($231.3 billion) in the quarter[19] |
| Other assets | ~$5.1T | Remainder: deposits, directly held shares, other assets |
| Debt-to-income | 177.7% | March quarter 2026; housing debt alone 134.6%[20] |
| Debt-to-assets | ~15% | Derived: $3.41T ÷ $22.8T |
| Net worth per person | $691,600 | ABS, as reported[27] |
The ABS release reports quarterly changes, not closing balances. The derived values are calculated from rounded percentage changes and carry an error of about ±2%. Superannuation is counted as a household asset; super funds invest it mostly in shares and bonds, so it is also counted in layers 3 and 5 of the pyramid. Housing debt ($2.62 trillion) is about 20.5% of the value of all dwellings ($12.77 trillion). About half of homeowners have no mortgage,[28] so the ratio on mortgaged homes is higher than the national figure.
7. Australian interest rate derivatives
Mechanism. In an interest rate swap, two parties exchange interest payments calculated on an agreed notional amount. One pays a fixed rate; the other pays a floating rate set by BBSW or by the RBA cash rate (an overnight index swap, OIS). The notional amount is not exchanged; only the difference between the two payments is paid. Banks use swaps to hedge fixed-rate loans funded by floating-rate deposits; companies use them to fix the rate on borrowings; super funds and insurers use them to match long-dated liabilities. When rates move, the party on the losing side of the contract pays variation margin to the clearing house each day.
| Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Australian OTC derivatives, notional | A$42.3T | Jun 2017 | DDRS trade repository[11] |
| of which interest rate derivatives | A$34.7T | Jun 2017 | DDRS[11] |
| Interest rate derivatives, notional | ~A$36T | 2018 | RBA[29] |
| their gross market value | ~A$470bn | 2018 | RBA[29] |
| Derivatives referencing BBSW | A$17T | 2018 | ASIC / RBA[30] |
| AUD swaps cleared at LCH SwapClear | A$4T | Jun 2014 | RBA; latest A$ total published[31] |
| Open notional cleared at ASX (both sides) | A$5,231.5bn | Sep 2026 | ASX[32] |
| Global interest rate derivatives | US$669.5T | Dec 2025 | BIS, via ISDA[1] |
Latest Australian data (end-June 2025, from the BIS survey as reported by the RBA):[33]
- Australian OTC derivatives notional rose about 35% from June 2022 to June 2025, and is more than double its level a decade earlier.
- 66% of interest rate derivatives are denominated in Australian dollars.
- 88% of interest rate derivative notional is centrally cleared (global: about 77%).
- Gross market value is 1.3% of notional in Australia (global: 2.3%).
- Turnover in April 2025 averaged US$252 billion a day, up 123% on 2022; about half of interest rate swap turnover was in overnight index swaps.[21]
- LCH SwapClear in London clears about 90% of centrally cleared AUD interest rate derivatives; ASX clears the remainder.[34]
The RBA’s 2026 report gives growth rates and shares, not a dollar total. The ratio of gross market value to notional (1.3%) shows the money at risk is a small fraction of the headline figure; the daily margin payments it generates when rates move are paid in cash.
8. Data gaps
- Australian derivatives total. ASIC requires these trades to be reported to a trade repository (DTCC’s DDRS), which produces aggregate “ASIC public reports” by asset class and currency. No public total after 2018 was found in RBA or ASIC summaries.
- LCH AUD total. LCH clears about 90% of cleared AUD swaps. The RBA last published an A$ total for it in 2014; later assessments give percentage changes only.
- State government debt. The latest total found is $550 billion (RBA, 2023).
- Commercial property. No current Australian total was found.
- Crypto held by Australians. The latest total found is from February 2022.
- Global short-term bills. Only the United States figure is shown.
- Who holds which side of Australian swaps. No sector breakdown was found, so it is not known which sectors pay margin when rates rise.
Sources
- ISDA, Key Trends in the Size and Composition of OTC Derivatives Markets in the Second Half of 2025 (July 2026), from BIS OTC derivatives statistics.
- Savills Research, global real estate value (released September 2025).
- Ocorian, Global Asset Monitor #5 (19 October 2026).
- Institute of International Finance, Global Debt Monitor, end-2025 composition (as reported by IDN Financials).
- Institute of International Finance, Global Debt Monitor (23 September 2026).
- US Treasury, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, 30 September 2026 (as reported by PrimeRates).
- India Macro Indicators, “Currency in circulation: how much money exists in the world” (2025); secondary estimate.
- World Gold Council, above-ground stocks, end-2025.
- Gold spot price, 27 October 2026 (pricegold.net).
- Forbes Advisor, top 10 cryptocurrencies, 15 October 2026.
- DTCC DDRS figures for June 2017 and AFMA 2017 report, as reported by MacroBusiness (June 2018).
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Total Value of Dwellings, March quarter 2026 (released 9 June 2026).
- ASX, historical market statistics, September 2026.
- RBA statistical table D2, June 2026; RBA financial aggregates credit shares.
- Australian Office of Financial Management, AGS on issue, 30 January 2026.
- RBA Bulletin, “Recent Developments in the Semi-government Bond Market” (January 2024).
- RBA weekly balance sheet, 18 February 2026 (via CEIC).
- RBA, “Questions & Answers About Our Gold Holdings”; official reserve assets.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: Finance and Wealth, June 2026 (released 24 September 2026).
- RBA/ABS household debt-to-income, March quarter 2026 (as reported by Savvy).
- RBA, 2025 BIS Triennial Survey results – Australia.
- Blockchain Reporter, Bitcoin market data, October 2026 (CoinGecko).
- World Gold Council, 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey (as reported by CoinTurk).
- Deutsche Bank Research Institute, The future of central bank reserves by 2030 (October 2025).
- Roy Morgan, cryptocurrency holdings by age and gender (February 2022).
- Ainslie Bullion, “Are We Holding Gold?” (2025), production projection.
- MacroBusiness, household wealth (September 2026), citing ABS.
- PropertyUpdate, citing RBA and ABS on mortgage-free homeowners.
- RBA Bulletin, “The Australian OTC Derivatives Market: Insights from New Trade Repository Data” (June 2018).
- RBA Bulletin, “Interest Rate Benchmarks for the Australian Dollar” (September 2018).
- RBA, 2013/14 Assessment of LCH.Clearnet Limited’s SwapClear Service.
- ASX Group Monthly Activity Report, September 2026.
- RBA Bulletin, “Developments in Foreign Exchange and Over-the-counter Derivatives Markets” (February 2026).
- RBA Payments System Board Annual Report 2025.